Newfoundland and Labrador Budget

I'm packing up a U-Haul all day, so for budget coverage, best to check out Wally.
Or, of course the local press folks - here, here, and here.

Good news, but I'm doubtful I'll see many U-Hauls moving in the opposite direction as me as a result of it.

April has been a slow month for blogging. May should be better.

Toronto Star / Angus Reid Poll

Saturday's Star provides the first major set of polling numbers since the RCMP raid on Tory HQ.

The Conservatives stand at 33 per cent support across Canada, a loss of three percentage points since a similar poll in March. The Liberals have been the prime beneficiaries of that slide, up four percentage points to 30 per cent, according to the online poll of 1,007 Canadians.

The full article is here. It says it's an online poll, so you might want to do a little digging into the methodology, margin of error, etc.

The follies of ethnocentric nationalism

Oh ,the ever changing political vocabulary in Quebec. How are we anglos supposed to keep up ?

souverainistes... nationalistes... independentistes... separatistes... autonomistes... and now - lepenistes???

On the one hand, it's mildly entertaining to watch the PQ and ADQ at each other throats over who's being too nationalist. On the other, there's no entertainment value in race and immigration emerging as front page issues in any election campaign. It's downright ugly.

But how can anybody be surprised by this? Campaign propaganda which suggests that some people belong to the "nation" while others do not, is simply echoing what federal cabinet ministers have been saying for quite some time now.

In and Out. Over and over.

The federal Conservatives' "In and Out" scandal may be dominating the blogosphere today, but as Wally points out, the provincial Conservatives' "Over and over and over" scandal is just as easily to document. Almost as fin, too.

Innovation. Taylor-made.

Here I am , one day in St. John's and I'm already sunburned. Go figure.

And speaking of getting burned...

...the front page story in The Western Star features the sad tale of a family business in Howley closing down. Leo's General Store. I've stopped there for gas perhaps two or three times. You're probably wondering why I'd even bother mentioning it. Lemme explain.

What's interesting about this particular story is that it makes no mention that this convenience store and gas bar is shutting its doors almost exactly one year to the day that the provincial government decided to fork over $100,000 of taxpayers' money to finance their competition.

Check it out. Here's the cheque-writing Minister himself, on April 25, 2007:

"While the Department of Innovation, Trade and Rural Development does not normally involve itself in retail businesses, in rural communities with limited services we accept proposals with a clear business case that address local market and service deficiencies," said the Honourable Trevor Taylor, Minister of Innovation, Trade and Rural Development.

Oh. And it gets better. From the same release, a description of the source of and rationale for the funding:

"The Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Fund provides term loans and equity investments to small and medium-sized businesses in strategic growth sectors. Special emphasis is given to value-added manufacturing, information technology, aquaculture, bio-technology, marine services, agrifoods and tourism, where local competitive impact is not an issue. The fund will also target businesses which have export potential and need assistance to enter or expand in external markets."

What a farce.

More Newfoundland stories, live on location, tomorrow. On a side note, it was a truly great day to cancel my Halifax Chronicle Herald subscription. Never had to read this.

In and Out

Hmmm... not a good day for the Tories, what with the RCMP executing a search warrant on their headquarters and all.

Polls

Bruce Anderson from Harris Decima Research, on their latest poll results:

“There’s a lack of enthusiasm for the Conservatives, waning interest in the NDP and a firming of support for the Green party,” he said.

“The Liberal brand is slowly, but perceptibly recovering from the trauma of the sponsorship scandal.

“NDP voters show increased interest in the Liberals and fewer Conservative voters see the Liberal brand as toxic.”

It's a fools game trying to gauge the accuracy of these things, but it will be interesting to watch how much play the media give to a poll that doesn't fit with their desired headlines and commentary about a purported meltdown within a certain party.

It's also interesting to see the NDP in fifth in Quebec and in fourth in Ontario, behind the Green Party. Without a doubt the key question in the next campaign, whenever it happens, is going to be whether that Green number is real or soft, and if it's soft... where does it go?

The 1993 election was a watershed in Canadian politics because it effectively eliminated one of Canada's two parties, and ushered in the so-called Pizza Parliament. Things have hardly been the same ever since. The Greens may not have the numbers to compete in many ridings, but if these numbers gel over the next few months into a "core" vote, they'll have a huge impact on swing ridings across the country.

UPDATE: The actual release from Decima is here. It's interesting for a number of reasons.

First, the tri-weekly tracking is an interesting highlight (remember how we all got addicted to the three-day rolling numbers out of SES in the 2004 election...), but it comes with the added caution that these really are small samples.

Second, while the Ontario and Quebec regional breakouts get prominent media coverage, the others don't. But BC and Atlantic Canada are included in the Decima release. And they have strange results - including an NDP surge into second in British Columbia, ahead of the LIberals, and a Liberal upswing here in my neck of the woods. But note the swings in both instances from pollign period to polling period, and remember the sample size.

The Prairies are notably absent from the analysis. I assume this is again owing to the size of the sample, but I've often wondered if it's more a reflection of the difference in political culture between Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, making it risky or inaccurate to lump them together. Which is why I'm surprised that it's accepted practice with the Atlantic numbers. And it's probably why on the eve of every election pollsters and pundits mess up their Atlantic predictions on the basis of regional numbers that don't fit into provincial or riding reality.

Flexible federalism defined

"Always having to bend over"

UPDATE: Rob Silver nails it.