nottawa

Downtime

2012-01-20T12:39:00.002-05:00

I'm not writing much here these days, but since it generated a few emails yesterday, here's a link to a piece in yesterday's Western Star with a very general overview of federal Liberal leadership rules and timelines as affected by last weekend's convention in Ottawa.

More info available soon via http://www.liberal.ca/

Better late than never

2011-12-22T13:17:00.003-05:00

I'm grateful that it has finally happened, but it is worth asking why it has taken journalists, university professors and the Leader of the NDP (or any other members of the House of Assembly) so long to come around to a very basic concept that some of us have been advocating for several years.

Inflation

2011-12-21T17:11:00.005-05:00

On May 24, 2005, a by-election was held in the federal riding of Labrador, after the unfortunate passing of MP Lawrence O'Brien.

One interesting thing about that by-election is this little graphic found on the Elections Canada website:

It is particularly interesting in light of this excerpt from a recent CBC story describing the expenses incurred in the most recent federal election in Labrador by Conservative candidate and now Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, Peter Penashue (emphasis added):

"In total, Penashue spent more than $115,000 on his successful election bid. Russell spent just over $37,000."

Assuming Penashue's expenditures are within the prescribed limits, and assuming CBC's reported figure is correct, that's an increase in allowable expenditures of more than 53% in six years in a single riding.

To say the least, that seems odd.

I told you so

2011-12-20T09:01:00.004-05:00

For years, this corner has described the growth of spending (a.k.a. Williams popularity subsidization) over the past eight years by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador as quite simply unsustainable.

Up to now, Tories (and others) have disagreed with that assessment. Fair enough.

Judging by the last quote in this CBC story, it would appear that at least one Tory has suddenly come around:

"Our spending at the rate that we've been doing over the last eight years — and it has been very necessary for a number of very good reasons to do that — is not sustainable in the long run,"
- Kathy Dunderdale

Decoding Dunderdale

2011-12-03T12:10:00.003-05:00

James McLeod has a great piece in the Telegram today. It comes complete with a great headline derived from a quote the Premier provides, all of which, in its own subtle way speaks volumes about the Newfoundland and Labrador Government's unchanged half century-long view of how things ought to work in the fishing industry.

First, the headline:

'Can't constantly turn to government': premier

And the relevant bits (with emphasis added)...

"Everybody in this province can't constantly turn to government and say, 'you fix it. You subsidize it.' We can't pay people to work. We can't pay people to live in communities in this province," she said.

In Marystown - the part of the province Dunderdale is originally from - she laid a lot of the blame at the feet of the union, which rejected a plan to keep the plant open earlier this year.

Union members voted against a plan to keep the plant open for 18 weeks per year for the next three years.

"Eighteen weeks' work opposed to no weeks work - that's what people have got to ask themselves now," Dunderdale said.

(The St. John's Telegram, December 3, 2011)

The missing adjective in the Premier's comments is that everybody can't constantly turn to the provincial government.

In other words - what the Premier is saying is precisely what provincial governments for decades have cited as the guiding principle for the processing sector in Newfoundland and Labrador. That is, the provincial government can't "pay people to live in communities in this province" but if only those uncooperative bastards in community x and y would've taken eighteen weeks work (for EI purposes) we could have put Ottawa on the hook and "constantly turned" to that government to "pay people to live in communities in this province" instead.

As long as this mentality drives fishery policy in our province, absolutely nothing will change.

Mona Eltahawy

2011-11-26T22:34:00.003-05:00

I met Mona Eltahawy, albeit briefly, in New York at #pdf11.

Watching her today, with two casts on her arms and a horrifying story of her treatment at the hands of Egyptian police was disturbing.

Her hands may be broken, but her spirit isn't. Here's the speech she gave at Personal Democracy Forum earlier this year:

An instant classic

2011-11-09T22:00:00.000-05:00

Saskatchewan

2011-11-07T19:13:00.005-05:00

With polls closing in just a few hours in Saskatchewan, we bring to a close a very busy fall provincial election season.

I am assuming there will be links to live results at some point, here after 8 p.m. CST (that's 10:30 p.m. in Newfoundland)

Other sites for election coverage:

Global Television
CBC Saskatchewan
Regina Leader Post
And on twitter at #skvotes

Just a rumour that was spread around town...

2011-10-19T21:14:00.001-04:00

For the folks in Halifax:

Meanwhile, next door...

2011-10-18T11:45:00.003-04:00

Despite Premier Kathy Dunderdale's best efforts to quash all legislative debate and public discussion of the development of the Lower Churchill, there will be a Standing Committee Meeting tasked specifically with examination of the project.

Members of the legislature of all party stripes, assembled in their regular committee hearing room will hear presentations from a host of government officials and senior representatives of the proponent company.

If that concept sounds foreign to you, it's probably because you're from Newfoundland & Labrador.

The legislative standing committee meeting is, naturally, happening elsewhere, in Nova Scotia.

Math - a partial antidote to hyperbole

2011-10-18T10:45:00.001-04:00

The Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Labour is trumpeting a report on wealth sharing, authored by Laval Political Economist Travis William Fast. (UPDATE: you can get a copy of Fast's brief, here.)

According to VOCM, the report concludes:

"The Canadian average for the last decade of wages as a share of GDP was 51 per cent compared to just 38 per cent in our province."

While the attribution of this statistic to "corporations being the big, big winners" is popular mantra, the advocates behind this spin might also want to take into account the relative size of NL's labour force, which continues its rapid and unabated decline. It is likely a more significant contributor to that ratio, and is certainly a far more troubling one.

Now that the election is over...

2011-10-18T07:00:00.001-04:00

Less than a week after her party's re-election, Premier Kathy Dunderdale informed voters that the House of Assembly would not be re-opening until the Spring, in part because she deems it dysfunctional, and as she told the CBC's David Cochrane:

"We need legislation to bring to the floor of the house of assembly. It's not going to be ready in time."

While I am undecided as to whether I share Ms. Dunderdale's laments a lack of talent around her in the House to draft any legislation, I humbly offer the following as one bill that should have no trouble passing. A very simple amendment to the Elections Act, 1991, SNL 1992, c E-3.1* which is modeled on practices already in place in at least one other province:

PART VI.1
General
No publication of information during an election
XX(1) In this section and in sections XXX.1 and XXX.2, “Government ministry” means any ministry, board, commission, Crown corporation or agency of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.
(2) During a general election, no Government ministry shall publish in any manner any information with respect to the activities of the ministry.
(3) During a by-election in a constituency, no Government ministry shall publish in any manner in the constituency any information with respect to the activities of the ministry.
(4) During a by-election in a constituency that includes, in whole or in part, a city having a population exceeding 10,000 inhabitants, no Government ministry shall publish in any manner in that city any information with respect to the activities of
the Government ministry.
(5) Subsections (2) to (4) do not apply to:
(a) information that, because of an emergency or compelling public safety concern, is required to be published in the public interest; or
(b) advertising by a Crown corporation that is related to the Crown corporation’s competitive business interests.
(6) Every person in Newfoundland and Labrador in charge of a broadcasting undertaking in Newfoundland and Labrador or an undertaking that publishes a newspaper, magazine or periodical in Newfoundland and Labrador shall file with the Chief Electoral Officer a solemn declaration setting out:
(a) whether or not any information mentioned in this section has been published or broadcast by the undertaking of which the person is in charge; and
(b) if any information has been published or broadcast, the name of the Government ministry that requested the publication and the details of the publication.
(7) The solemn declaration mentioned in subsection (6) must be filed within two months after the polling day for the election.
2011 c.XX s.X
No government advertising 30 days before issuance of a writ
XXX(1) During the 30 days before the issuance of a writ for a general election that is held in accordance with section XX of Elections Act, 1991, no Government ministry shall advertise in any manner with respect to the activities of the ministry.
(2) Subsection (1) does not apply to:
(a) information that, because of an emergency or compelling public safety concern, is required to be conveyed to the public; or
(b) advertising by a Crown corporation that is related to the Crown corporation’s competitive business interests.
2011, c.XX. s. X
Limits on government advertising during the four months preceding the issue of a writ
XXX(1) In this section, “average monthly amount” means, with respect to a Government ministry, the average amount of money spent on advertising by the Government ministry within the 12 months preceding the restriction on advertising in subsection XXX.1(1).
(2) During the 120 days before the issuance of a writ for a general election that is
held in accordance with section 8.1 of Elections Act, 1991 no Government ministry shall spend on advertising in each month more than its average monthly amount for advertising.
(3) During the 90 days before the period mentioned in subsection XXX.1(1), no Government ministry shall advertise in any manner any information other than information that is intended to inform the public about programs and services of
the ministry for the public benefit of Newfoundland and Labrador people or to address an emergency or compelling public safety concern.
(4) Subsection (3) does not apply to advertising by a Crown corporation that is
related to the Crown corporation’s competitive business interests.
(5) During the period mentioned in subsection (2), no Government ministry shall
advertise in Newfoundland and Labrador any information that is intended to promote the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador to persons outside of Newfoundland and Labrador.
(6) The head of a Government ministry that advertises in the period mentioned in
subsection (2) shall file with the Chief Electoral Officer a solemn declaration
setting out:
(a) the average monthly amount of advertising for that ministry;
(b) the monthly cost of advertising that was incurred by the ministry during the 120-day period; and
(c) the specifics of the advertising, including how and when it was conducted and the cost of the advertising.
(7) The solemn declaration pursuant to subsection (6) must be filed within two months after the polling day for the general election.
2011, c.XX, s.X.

*It may be necessary to also table as an amendment to NALCOR's enabling statute, but we'll leave that for another day

Further to previous

2011-10-17T15:58:00.004-04:00

The Western Star has latched on to a story that first ran this weekend in Halifax's Chronicle Herald about a coalition of environmental advocates calling for Nova Scotia Power to consider buying readily available hydroelectricity from Quebec rather than the potential development of Muskrat Falls.

Leaving the environmental reasons and motivations from the group aside for just a moment, there are three excerpts from the story that ought to jump out at every taxpayer (and ratepayer) in Newfoundland & Labrador. They are as follows:

With Hydro-Quebec sitting on surplus power and hydro prices at historical lows, they say a power agreement with Quebec is a no-brainer.

“Quebec power is immediately available and the Newfoundland and Labrador project is an idea,” Neal Livingston of Black River Hydro Ltd. said in a recent interview.

And:

The average price of power in the New England wholesale market this summer was only 4.9 cents US per kilowatt hour.

Finally:

The northern state’s two largest utilities signed a $1.5-billion agreement with Hydro-Quebec. The 26-year contract, which begins next year and runs until 2038, is for 225 megawatts of electricity, enough to meet about a quarter of the state’s total energy needs.

Under the deal, Vermont ratepayers will pay about six cents per kilowatt hour. However, the price is tied to inflation and electricity market indexes.

Does anyone still think hydro power at 16.5 cents/kWh (the cost before transmission beyond Nova Scotia is even factored in) can be competitive in this market?

Election results - NL

2011-10-11T17:52:00.002-04:00

Elections Newfoundland & Labrador has done a great job with their site this year by the look of things.

Results go live in about half an hour's time. Check it out, here.

No, I didn't forget about Manitoba

2011-10-04T22:47:00.002-04:00

Sorry for the delay folks - Manitoba election results are found right here.

2015

2011-10-03T20:11:00.013-04:00

With an unusually high number of overlapping provincial and territorial elections this year, the Fall of 2011 makes for a busy electoral season. With few fireworks in Ottawa as we settle into the normalcy of majority rule in Ottawa, the nation's press gallery, pundits and tweeps are attuned to far flung corners of the country's political map as never before.

Throughout tonight's election coverage from Prince Edward Island, a great deal was made - by media, by commentators and by candidates alike, about the impropriety of an unprecedented level of participation by the federal Conservative government in the campaign.

For those unfamiliar, at the outset of the campaign, the federal government dropped a bomb on the governing provincial Liberals, by initiating an investigation into PEI's immigrant investor program. Predictably, many have questioned the timing of the investigation. Scandalous as the whole affair may turn out to be, the timing of the investigation has become nearly as much a scandal itself.

Meanwhile, Dalton McGuinty's Liberals are also crying foul over the direct participation of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney (among others) in the election currently underway in Ontario.

Opponents in both provinces claim this level of interference by the Harper Conservatives - in which sitting cabinet ministers are actively campaigning against an incumbent provincial government is unprecedented. I'm not certain that t is. Voters in both of these provinces, and elsewhere, should see this as the new normal..

In Newfoundland, Premier Kathy Dunderdale - despite recent efforts to cozy up with Stephen Harper during the federal election - doesn't seem to want him around for her own campaign, and is making a clear effort to avoid being associated with him.

Dunderdale's opponents aren't afraid to cozy up with federal their federal cousins, as opposition parties are wont to do. Halifax MP Megan Leslie was on the stump with NDP candidates in St. John's this week. Liberal MP Gerry Byrne hit the hustings in aid of aspiring candidates in Placentia and the Bay of Islands this week.

In Manitoba, certain federal Liberals made a splash of a different kind, endorsing a number of provincial New Democrats in tight races in Winnipeg.

Not all of this is unusual. Partisan politics in Canada has always relied on mutual cooperation between provincial and federal birds of the same feather where such political parties exist.

But even if you do find any of it unprecedented, unseemly or inappropriate, get used to it.

Just as it took media some time to clue into the fixed-election legislative alignment that brought us seven provincial and territorial elections in one season, just wait until they figure out what happens in 2015 when these same jurisdictions hold their elections in conjunction with a simultaneous federal campaign in October of the same year.

How the various political parties at federal and provincial levels align their interests, policies, candidates and electoral machines four years from now is going to be a crucial element for anyone's electoral success (at either level) in 2015.

Equally interesting to see in 2015 will be how differing provincial and federal electoral laws related to party advertising, polling and fundraising rules will come into play for candidates and parties vying for the same votes, donors and airwaves.

UPDATE - on a not-unrelated note... the latest Ekos numbers in Ontario and some accompanying analysis about the inverse relationship between certain federal and Conservative voting trends in that province.

NWT Election Results

2011-10-03T20:03:00.007-04:00

With PEI's election results now all but declared, Northwest Territories goes to the polls.

For results, follow along here.

PEI Election Results

2011-10-03T17:26:00.001-04:00

The PEI election results page should go live in just over half an hour.

Follow along, here.

Quotable quotes

2011-09-23T13:23:00.005-04:00

From Rob Antle's article in Atlantic Business Magazine, an interesting quote from federal Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver about Muskrat Falls, and the federal government's loan guarantee.

“Look, the project, at the end of the day, has a private sector component to it, so the decision of the people in Newfoundland and Labrador and elsewhere in the region is that the project is economically viable."

Can anyone offer an explanation what that's supposed to mean?

Affectionate dispatches from the recently retired

2011-09-23T11:25:00.010-04:00

Dear Newfoundlanders and Labradorians:

I know that there is an election going on over the course of the past week and the next couple of weeks. (I know this because it was I who set the dates.)

I know that you are tempted to focus on other people. People like Kathy Dunderdale, Kevin Aylward and Lorraine Michael. And those Members of the whatchamacallit who I had to hang out with in that godawful House from time to time. Coattail riders. The lot of 'em.

Your focus on other people is starting to bother me. I want to be on your television. I want to be in your newspapers, and I want to be on the radio. Not them. Me.

I want you to know about my assessments of the competence of women. I want you to revel in my new plaything (buy a jersey...) and I want you to know who I am with last week, next week and for every week to come.

I want you to talk about me, dammit, not those other false prophets who would pretend to lead you and to whom you owe no affection. Remember - I gave you pride. I embody you in my heart and soul and dammit you should be watching, listening to and following ME.

STOP PAYING ATTENTION TO THOSE OTHER PEOPLE.

Sincerely,

Danny

P.S. Kathy - how's the bus? Is it comfy as my Winnebago was? Can I come hang out for old time's sake... on a go-forward basis?

14 months later

2011-09-21T10:07:00.002-04:00

Kathy Dunderdale, last year:

"New buyer has eyes on mill" - CBC

Kathy Dunderdale, yesterday:

"It'd be something of a miracle in the present climate" - CBC

We've never been stronger.

Special Ballots

2011-09-09T15:40:00.004-04:00

Regular readers have probably seen a few rants on this topic before, but here's a wee bit more in today's Western Star on the bizarre provisions in the Elections Act which allow special ballots in Newfoundland & Labrador to be cast before the election is even called.

Admittedly, I've conflated two different issues here, so it's probably not the best explanation of the problems with (and the legality of) casting votes ahead of the writ period. You can read a bit more on the subject in previous posts, but I'm starting to get the sense that it'll take an academic-length paper (yawn) to spell this out more clearly. That ain't gonna happen any time soon.

But I stand by the original quote in today's piece: In the hypothetical event where a candidate loses by a very slim margin, and the number of special ballots cast before the writ period is bigger than the margin of victory, the whole system becomes vulnerable to a serious legal challenge.

And I would dearly love to test that theory...

Morning Show addendum

2011-09-06T06:32:00.005-04:00

Our political panel on the CBC Morning Show was a bit of fun. Thanks to former Premier Tom Rideout and Dr. Holly Pike for putting up with me and, of course, our host and moderator Bernice Hillier. (UPDATE - audio is now online, here.)

About halfway through, the subject of special ballots came up. It's a subject which regular readers know tends to elevate my blood pressure a wee bit. One of my co-panelists suggested that federal special ballots weren't much different as you only had to write in the name of the party for whom you were voting for.

Incorrect.

According to the Elections Canada website, that is specifically not the case. See bullet #2 below.

To vote under the Special Voting Rules, electors other than Canadian Forces electors and incarcerated electors must:

register to vote by special ballot no later than 6:00 p.m. on the Tuesday before polling day
in the case of an election, obtain the names of the candidates in his or her electoral district (in an election, the elector completes the special ballot by writing the name of the chosen candidate (not the name of the political party); in a referendum, each referendum question is printed on a separate ballot and the elector checks off "yes" or "no")
in the case of an elector voting by special ballot outside the electoral district of his or her ordinary residence, ensure that the completed ballot arrives at Elections Canada in Ottawa no later than 6:00 p.m., Ottawa time, on polling day
in the case of an elector voting in his or her electoral district, ensure that the returning officer for that district receives the completed ballot before the close of the polls in the electoral district on polling day

Random bits, Tuesday morning edition

2011-09-06T05:45:00.000-04:00

Hope everyone had a great long weekend. Apologies to (ir)regular readers for another content lapse. I've been tweeting more than blogging of late. Follow @mark_watton for more.

In the meantime, a few links:

1. Tune into the CBC Corner Brook's West Coast Morning show to catch yours truly sometime between 7:30 and 8:00am. If there's a podcast version I'll link to it later.

2. Political junkies across the Atlantic provinces should have some new polling data to chew on from CRA tomorrow. The Guardian should have latest numbers for Prince Edward Island in today's online edition, and CBC's David Cochrane tweeted a little while ago that CBC NL would have same for Newfoundland & Labrador on air today at noon. Voters in both provinces go to the polls in the next few weeks. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia quarterly numbers are usually released simultaneously, or within days.

3. This essay, by a recently departed Republican staffer is a must read for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is a chilling reminder of what happens to politics when sensible people stay home. In an odd sort of way it's one of the most motivational things I've read in months.

4. This Peter Jackson column, already nearly a week old, seems to have struck a nerve. If you missed it, read it. If you didn't miss it, read it again.

5. In the "what else is new" category... Ottawa U trounced Guelph in their first football game of the Canadian University season. And best of all, the NFL season starts in two days...

Further to previous...

2011-09-05T21:24:00.002-04:00

... as the Globe and Mail reports, and with the Labour Day Weekend drawing to a close, Brian Topp's "recusal" from setting NDP leadership rules continues unabated. You'll get tired of me saying this, but it is straight out of an Orwell novel, I swear.

On a side note, check the reference at the end of the article to the latest brouhaha about to erupt over the Canada Elections Act. To wit,

"In a recent letter, the Conservative Party asked Elections Canada to investigate whether the NDP broke political financing laws during its spring convention.

The Tories say that signs were posted during the NDP's policy convention last June that indicated unions were sponsoring various events. The Canada Elections Act prohibits unions from making contributions of any kind in the Canadian http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifpolitical system.

Heather Wilson, the NDP's director of fundraising and membership, said that advertisements and sponsorships at “fair market value” are allowed by law."

Elections Canada's interpretation of "sponsorship" and "fair market value" may have serious implications after Harper's planned phase out of public subsidies.

Labour Day Weekend

2011-09-03T09:21:00.004-04:00

It's the start of the Labour Day weekend, so where better to start than with the brewing battle amongst NDP leadership hopefuls about the role its "affiliate groups" will play in the upcoming vote to replace Jack Layton?

For those unfamiliar with the concept, it basically means that if you are a member of a union affiliated with the NDP you have the opportunity not only to vote twice, but also to ensure that one of your votes that you cast as part of your "affiliate" is pooled with those of your brothers and sisters to always be weighted to 25% of the outcome of any ballot. To cast the second of your two votes, you don't even have to join the party.

As George Orwell so aptly put it, "All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others". (Readers be forewarned, you will get a heavy dose of Orwell quotes throughout this exercise...)

It's causing a bit of a rift today amongst Leadership hopefuls, with Thomas #iamnotrunning Mulcair and Pat Martin suggesting (sensibly) that the accommodation of the NDP's elite to the detriment of its rank-and-file is a concept from a bygone era.

Party President and leadership front-runner Brian Topp, suggests otherwise. What is striking about Topp's very public intervention in support of rules which extend extra voting privileges to union members is that it comes mere days after his insisting as President he would recuse himself from the establishment of convention and leadership rules until he ruled out a run of his own.

Today's media splash is a pretty strange way of recusing oneself.

Virtual Town Hall - What we learned

2011-08-15T11:21:00.004-04:00

Well that was a bit of fun, wasn't it?

Later this week I will post some more information and feedback I've received from Saturday's Virtual Town Hall. Some is purely anecdotal, some is just raw data. From early reaction it sounds as though the Executive Board of the Party, many members, and the Leadership candidates saw value in the exercise and appear to have embraced it for the future. Media coverage has been by and large positive, too.

Whether it played a role in determining the outcome of yesterday's race is not for me to say.

Some Monday morning observations:

1. Last week the media were talking about the number nominated NDP candidates. This week they're talking about (a) the seven contenders for Liberal leader and (b) the 3400-plus households that participated in the Virtual Town Hall. That's a good turnaround.

2. Leading up to the contest, many were lamenting the possibility of the Party turning back to the past. Now, they're describing the Liberal Party as "surging to the front lines of technological, participatory democracy".

3. Some potential candidates, and a few other voices, questioned the fairness of a process that lacked proper consultation. That criticism seems to have been muted.

4. Finally, for those Liberals who vehemently disagree with the notion of memberships, lists or voter registration within the party - Saturday was tangible proof of the desire for participation - a desire that can only be met with sufficient adequate data. Membership isn't about asking individuals to do something, it's about creating the means to offer them something - legitimate participation. With a sensible membership structure, the next Liberal Town Hall could have over 34,000 participants, rather than 3400. Food for thought.

Newfoundland & Labrador Liberal Leadership Town Hall

2011-08-13T11:57:00.003-04:00

Stay by the phone. It will call you just before 2pm in Newfoundland and the southern tip of Labrador (NDT) or 1:30pm in most of Labrador (Atlantic Time Zone).

Oh, and by the way

2011-08-10T22:06:00.002-04:00

If you are:

(a) a regular reader of this blog from Newfoundland & Labrador; or
(b) have been following the Liberal leadership race these past few days; or
(c) are actively involved in said Leadership race, or you want to be,

You should keep your Saturday afternoon open. The weather's gonna be crappy anyway.

More to follow.

Yvonne Jones

2011-08-10T08:13:00.006-04:00

Six months ago, in the dead of a winter which blanketed Corner Brook with six-and-eight foot snowdrifts, and on the tail end of receiving chemotherapy treatments for her cancer, Yvonne Jones tried twice to make it to Humber West to hit the campaign trail.

The first time, on the advice of her doctor, she canceled her trip.

The second time, in spite of advice from her doctor, she came anyway.

That's really all you need to know about Yvonne's dedication to the party she led, the people around her, and the province she loves. It speaks volumes about her own determination and spunk.

If there is any silver lining in her announcement of yesterday, it's that she's running again in her own district.

We'll need her.

Platform pieces

2011-08-01T12:53:00.005-04:00

I haven't even read this yet, so I'll save substantive commentary until after my yard work is done. But there is a bit of chatter about it on twitter (check #nlpoli). Here's a copy of the document at the heart of the Liberal platform announcement from earlier this morning:

Caring for Our Seniors

Saturday bits

2011-07-30T11:14:00.011-04:00

I read all the papers this morning so you wouldn't have to.

1. The National Post of all places, provides a pretty good rebuttal to all those right wing commentators eager to dismiss the tragedy in Norway as the random acts of a madman:

His target was also carefully chosen, selecting the Labour Party because he saw it as the progenitor of the looming “cultural genocide” that came from the “Marxist/Islamic tyranny” and “Islamic demographic warfare.”

Further, by targeting both the current party’s leadership and its next generation of leaders, he sought impact beyond the immediate. The idea of killing the young could deal a blow to the party’s recruitment. What parent would want their child to attend similar events?

That hardly suggests a non-functioning mind.

Hard to argue with that.

2. Meanwhile, the Toronto Star profiles Jack Layton's coterie of advisers in this Joanna Smith piece. Two things about the article are striking:

First, I can't help but think that any similar Star item about any other political leader or political party would be littered with pejoratives like "backroom" and "insider" - lexicon which is notably absent.

And speaking of notably absent, there's no mention whatsoever of caucus members amongst the "team that Jack built", aside from the reference to Ms. Turmel's ascension to interim leader of the NDP. This isn't unusual - when you think about, the two most successful political parties in the recent election were those with the most centralized command structures. And you don't see the Tories or the Dippers constantly whining in the papers about it. There's a lesson there for someone, I'm sure.

3. The Vancouver Sun and the Globe and Mail have well-reasoned columns on the public's right to know more about the nature and severity of Mr. Layton's illness vs. the prominent political patient's right to privacy. Hard to argue with their shared conclusion, but I do wonder if they'd reach the same one if it were a sitting Prime Minister.

It's not an easy public debate to have when someone's health hangs in the balance, but there are many pitfalls about succession in a Parliamentary system that is essentially viewed through an ever-more-presidential lens. In a hypothetical situation in which a minority (or heaven forbid coalition) government is led by an ill or absent Prime Minister, what happens? Who decides?

4. CBC radio's The House has a few good features this week also including Allan Rock's reflections on his own battle with prostrate cancer while in office, my old boss Paul Martin on the budget impasse in Washington and the politics of debt and deficit reduction, and an endearing introductory interview with Nycole Turmel.

5. Finally, check out Calgary Grit's first glance synopsis of the upcoming LPC presidential race. It's early days yet, but I imagine it will generate a little more chatter once the summer is over and the spate of provincial elections is done in the fall.

Updated with hyperlinks

2011-07-22T12:31:00.005-04:00

A previous version of this post is the most Googled thing I've ever written, so I'll keep re-posting it with updates as the busy electoral season approaches. It's a calendar of upcoming dates and deadlines for political junkies/candidates/hacks across Canada. Post a comment or drop me a line if you have anything to add. I'm also not entirely convinced that my math is absolutely correct on one of those Saskatchewan dates, so if you have any corrections, pass 'em along, too.

August 1, 2011 – Nomination deadline for candidates, Alberta Liberal Party Leadership

August 14, 2011 - Earliest possible date that voters in Newfoundland & Labrador can request and receive a special ballot.

August 19, 2011 – Membership cut-off, deadline to register for remote voting, Alberta Liberal Party Leadership

August 30, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Manitoba

September 6, 2011 - Membership cut-off, deadline to register for in-person voting, Alberta Liberal Party Leadership

September 1, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Prince Edward Island

September 6, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Manitoba

September 7, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Prince Edward Island

September 7, 2011 - Writ will be issued for provincial election in Ontario

September 11, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Newfoundland & Labrador

September 13, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Manitoba provincial election

September 15, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Ontario provincial election

September 16, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Prince Edward Island provincial election

September 17, 2011 – Voting (First ballot) Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Leadership

September 18 19, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Newfoundland & Labrador

September 20, 2011 – Alberta Liberal Party Leadership vote

October 1, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Newfoundland & Labrador provincial election

October 1, 2011 - Voting (Second ballot- if necessary) Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Leadership

October 3, 2011 – Election Day in Prince Edward Island

October 3, 2011 – Election Day in Northwest Territory

October 4, 2011 – Election Day in Manitoba

October 5, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Saskatchewan

October 6, 2011 – Election Day in Ontario

October 10, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Saskatchewan

October 11, 2011 – Election Day in Newfoundland & Labrador

October 22, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Saskatchewan provincial election

November 7, 2011 – Election Day in Saskatchewan

November 7, 2011 – Voting day for municipal elections in even-numbered rural municipalities in Saskatchewan

November 20, 2011 – Voting day for municipal elections in British Columbia

December 3, 2011 – Membership deadline for attending Liberal Party of Canada Biennial Convention

December 5, 2011 – Municipal Elections Nunavut (hamlets only)

December 10, 2011 – Latest possible date for delegate selection meetings, Liberal Party of Canada Biennial Convention

January 13-15, 2012 – Liberal Party of Canada Biennial Convention, Ottawa

May 14, 2012 – New Brunswick Municipal Elections

October 15, 2012 – NWT Municipal Elections (taxed communities)

October 15, 2012 – Nunavut Municipal Elections (Iqaluit only)

October 18, 2012 – Yukon Municipal Elections

October 20, 2012 – Nova Scotia Municipal Elections

December 10, 2012 – NWT Municipal Elections (hamlets only)

January 19, 2013 – Membership cut-off date, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming earliest possible scenario)

March 1, 2013 – Voting day, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming earliest possible scenario)

May 20, 2013 - Membership cut-off date, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming latest possible scenario)

June 30, 2013 – Voting day, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming latest possible scenario)

"...and the more you can become the face of government..."

2011-07-17T09:15:00.005-04:00

James MacLeod's weekend piece on a day-in-the-life of a typical backbench MHA is a pretty good read.

It probably isn't much of an eye-opener to folks who view their Member's role in the same manner as Tom Osborne, Kevin Hutchings or Marshall Dean (the three MHAs mentioned in the article) describe. To others, it might lead to some wondering why we bother with a legislature, or why its members need to be on full-time payroll, or why we need 48 of them.

"In fact, backbench MHAs don’t actually do that much when the House is open. Outside of the occasional speech during debate, and the high-intensity theatrics of question period, mostly they just sit there.

During a normal day in the House, it’s not unusual to see an MHA reading the newspaper while sitting in the legislature.

Arguably, it’s when the legislature closes and they go back to their districts that rank-and-file MHAs earn their annual salary of $95,000."

Read the full article here.

My own rant on a somewhat-related topic from earlier this month, is here.

Noticed

2011-07-16T13:12:00.003-04:00

My gosh but today's Telegram editorial today has a few very, very familiar elements to it.

Veracity from Vermont

2011-07-14T14:26:00.004-04:00

You can follow this link to CBC Radio's Radio Noon interview with Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin, talking about the proposed Lower Churchill hydro development at Muskrat Falls, and discussion around the project at a recent meeting of New England Governors and Eastern Premiers.

One of the main points raised - price.

When CBC asks the governor how a price of power between and 14.7 and 16.5 cents per kWh compares to what they're paying now, his answer is quite simple - it's much higher. If the price is that high Vermont would be inclined to generate its own power.

Sigh. This has a familiar ring to it. It sure is hard being right most of the time.

I wonder if the correct interpretation of Governor Shumlin's comments will generate anywhere near as much Newfoundland media coverage as the speculative misinterpretation of Governor Malloy's comments did earlier in the week.

I doubt it.

Thibodeau v Air Canada

2011-07-13T19:20:00.002-04:00

The Federal Court decision in Thibodeau v Air Canada is here. But you can get a sense of the outcome via just about any major national media outlet this afternoon.

As Canadian Press reported:

"Air Canada must pay $12,000 and apologize to an Ottawa couple after admitting it failed to provide them with services in French, a Federal Court judge ruled Wednesday.

However, the judge decided against imposing punitive damages, saying the carrier has tried to comply with its obligations under the Official Languages Act."

As a supporter of bilingualism and proponent of the equality and language rights enshrined in the Official Languages Act and in the Charter, I applaud the decision.

And as any Newfoundlander who travels from Fort McMurray or Toronto to a home airport in Deer Lake or St. John's via Montreal can tell you, it's good to know that those same rights to service in both official languages apply to English speakers as well.

I have only one question:

How does Jack Layton possibly support this decision, given his stated intention to remove federally- regulated industries from the application of the Official Languages Act in favour of provincial language regimes? And in the wake of this headline-grabbing decision, what will it take to get anyone to ask him?

Disconnected from Connecticut

2011-07-12T06:00:00.005-04:00

Tuesday's papers will undoubtedly be picking up on this CP story in which the topic of discussion flowing from the New England Governors and Eastern Premiers was the delay in exporting long promised Canadian hydroelectric power to the Eastern seaboard of the United States.

As the Governor of Connecticut put it, we're apparently running out of time...

Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy said pressure is building in the United States to satisfy renewable energy needs locally rather than wait for Canadian sources of hydroelectricity.

"We have built a substantial desire amongst investors in our state to develop alternative energy — non-Canadian — because of the lack of direct discussion and belief that the product is going to be delivered in a timely fashion," said Malloy.

He said the lack of direct discussion about hydroelectricity with Canadian officials in general is "troubling."

Malloy said he believed importing Canadian hydroelectricity makes sense, but it has to be timely. "You've got to begin recognizing that time is running out and that you haven't invited all of the players to the table," he said.

(Source: Winnipeg Free Press)

Before local reporters stampede to the "logical" conclusion that we better hurry and get Muskrat Falls power through Labrador, under the Strait of Belle Isle, across the island of Newfoundland, under the Cabot Strait, through a total of three provinces and at least three states to Connecticut before time runs out, they might want to check one small fact - the price of power in Connecticut. It's currently retailing at between $0.11051 per kWh and $0.11568 per kWh.*

The wholesale cost of electricity generated from Muskrat Falls, if everything goes to plan, will be between $0.147 and $0.165 per kWh according to Kathy Dunderdale.

Assuming transmission is perfectly efficient and costs zero, that's still about a 40% gap between what Nalcor and Emera will be charging Connecticut utilities wholesale, and what consumers in Connecticut are currently paying retail.

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, who have no competitive electricity market, may be willing to accept a 40% (or much higher) leap in their power bills to honour Danny Williams' legacy, but I somehow doubt the good folks of Connecticut, whose market is competitive, feel similarly inclined.

*note - one discount provider purports to offer electricity at $0.08999 per kWh in Connecticut

New Dawn II

2011-07-09T13:41:00.010-04:00

Is nobody curious about this?

From a column in today's Telegram by Michael Johansen (emphasis added):

The details of the New Dawn pact were finally released and, although they confused many voters before the referendum, leading to a situation described as "chaotic," one point was made clear: the Innu would be paid $2 million within days as compensation for damage caused to them by the original Churchill Falls development.

The word "compensation", in its truest sense, would seem to be independent of some future or subsequent act. If the original Churchill Falls development justified a form of "compensation", then such "compensation" would be compensatory regardless of any subsequent decision or act by the people to whom such "compensation" is owed.

In a hypothetical scenario where the Innu had rejected the New Dawn agreement, would they still receive compensation?

If the answer to that question is "no", then this so-called "compensation" isn't really compensation for a previous act or grievance at all. Rather, it is a payment made conditional upon voting a certain way to achieve a certain outcome.

Payments - particularly those to be made within days - to groups or individuals contingent on their voting a certain way are generally frowned upon. In most cases, they're outright illegal.

Would no one be troubled, or at least curious enough to enquire if in the next election, I went knocking on doors with a campaign slogan like "Ten Grand In The Hand"?

June (un)employment numbers

2011-07-08T08:03:00.004-04:00

This is quite something. 7400 fewer Newfoundlanders and Labradorians working this month compared to last. More info here.

Graphic source: Statistics Canada

Free strategic advice

2011-07-08T07:11:00.003-04:00

One very bad way to kill a rumour is to broadcast it, put it in print, on the evening news and online complete with a comments section.

The good district man

2011-07-04T22:50:00.014-04:00

One of my longstanding pet peeves as an on-again off-again political hack and observer of Newfoundland politics is the proliferation of the term "a good district man" in reference to our elected officials, particularly MHAs. (Leaving aside the fact that I've never actually seen the equally unnerving term "good district woman" in print anywhere, I'll state for the record that if I did, I'd be just as peeved by it.)

It's not that there's anything wrong with being a "good district" anything, but every time I challenge anyone (usually reporters) on the meaning of the term, I rarely ever get a response.

I've seen it in newsprint, plastered on blogs and more recently tweeted on Twitter. It remains a stable throwaway phrase for just about every radio talk show host to grace the fabled chair at VOCM.

Sometimes it's to suggest a person returns phone calls. Other times it's a consolation title for being one of the few who don't make it into this province's gargantuan cabinet circle. During the Members' Allowance scandal it was even offered up as an excuse for expropriating government monies to fill the pockets of needy constituents - playing the part of Robin Hood, if you will.

But I digress.

What got me thinking about this peeve this weekend was a piece in Thursday's Western Star.

To wit, an article outlining the Town of Howley's inability to use provincial gas tax credit funding to upgrade its water supply system. Nobody really questions the need for this infrastructure upgrade, but the Town's proposal falls outside of the eligibility criteria set for the program. It cannot use gas tax credit money as a substitute for its ten per cent required contribution to an otherwise 90% provincially funded infrastructure program. The Star reports MHA Darryl Kelly's reaction as follows:

MHA Darryl Kelly said he is aware of the problem and is trying to find a solution.

"One of the problems is that they want to use it as their 10 per cent, and that just can’t be done in that program," said Kelly. "Their proposal unfortunately did not meet the criteria, but we are asking the province to look into it."

I suppose this is what makes someone like Mr. Kelly a good district man.

And this is where my own sense of logic (which admittedly may be completely off base with everyone else's) simply goes berserk.

Darryl Kelly, like all of his colleagues, is a legislator. He represents his district in the House of Assembly, which you'll be forgiven if you lost track, is a legislature. It legislates things. And where it does not legislate things, it legislates the powers necessary for others (i.e. the executive and its bureaucracy) to regulate things, and to establish programs and their criteria.

Which then begs the question - is the job of an MHA, particularly a government MHA, i.e. a legislator, a good district man, to pass legislation or to circumvent it? Undoubtedly the Town of Howley, in search of an infrastructure upgrade that's 90% or 100% paid by the province would dearly love, in this instance, to have a Member willing to put his shoulder to the wheel to circumvent the rules. Hence the commitment on his part to continue "asking the province to look into it".

But if Mr. Kelly (or any other of his colleagues on either side of the House) thinks the eligibility criteria for the gas tax program is unfair, isn't the logical action of a legislator to pursue changes - legislative, regulatory or otherwise, that would reflect the kind of funding program he would rather see in place? Isn't any other course of action just a pile of hypocritical self-serving bullshit?

Nearly two years ago I raised this issue at length with the Members' Compensation Review Committee. Few of my comments on this particular point made it into the final report, as they likely fell outside of the Commission's narrow mandate.

As I said then, in the wake of the Members' Allowance scandal, far too much attention has been paid to what MHAs may have spent money on, with little focus at all on the roles of Members in our system and the generally accepted practice of using public money to curry favour with the electorate.* With mere weeks to go before an election is officially underway, expect the good district men (and good district women) to be earning those accolades in spades.

*see MHA job description should be more closely examined, committee told, The Telegram, Friday August 7 2009 p. A7 (not available on line)

New Dawn

2011-07-04T09:38:00.005-04:00

Excerpted below is the portion of the Elections Act 1991, SNL 1992, c E-3.1 which essentially makes relevant portions of that Act applicable to public consultation of electors by way of plebiscite:

217. (1) Where it appears to the Lieutenant-Governor in Council that an expression of opinion of the electors is desirable on a matter of public concern, the Lieutenant-Governor in Council may direct that a plebiscite or referendum be held to obtain the expression of opinion.

(2) The provisions of this Part relating to the holding of elections and the provisions of Part III respecting election finances apply, with the necessary changes, to a plebiscite or referendum held under subsection (1) except to the extent that the Lieutenant-Governor in Council by order otherwise directs.

Mind you, the Act was likely drafted in contemplation of a plebiscite involving the entire voting population of the province, although it doesn't specifically state that it couldn't apply to a subset of electors. But assuming that the Act doesn't apply in this instance, and just to satiate my own curiosity with various forms of Canadian electoral law, can any of the enterprising journalists covering this story all week find a link to the rules that applied to the recent referendum to ratify the New Dawn agreement? Were there any?

Meanwhile, elsewhere...

2011-07-02T18:21:00.007-04:00

June was a bleak month on the world democracy stage. Saudi Arabia cracked down on women protesting for the right to drive, while relatively more progressive* Libya showered its female citizens with machine guns and shooting lessons. Syria remains an outright bloody mess. The Greeks, arguably democracy's inventors, watched their polity slip into virtual receivership.

But all is not lost.

Youth in China, it seems, have embraced at least one key component of Newfoundland-style democracy.

Young join communist party in bid to land jobs the Toronto Star pg. B3

"I joined because it'll help when looking for jobs," said Ling, a 24-year-old student at Beijing's Renmin University who declined to be identified by her full name because of concern that she will face retribution from the government. "Getting a government job is so hard, but if I got an offer I'd definitely jump for it. My second choice would be state-owned companies".

Sigh. Almost makes one homesick.

*denotes sarcasm

Happy Canada Day!

2011-07-01T18:21:00.003-04:00

Not only does Canada Day start in Newfoundland ahead of everywhere else, but in at least one other statistically-proven department, it appears the rest of the country has some catching up to do...

(Graphic from today's Globe and Mail Report on Business)

Predictability

2011-07-01T11:29:00.002-04:00

A quote from Maclean's, about six weeks ago:

"Jack Layton’s biggest management problem when the House of Commons reconvenes may well be the newly elected MP from St. John’s South-Mount Pearl."

Ya don't say...

From the cheap seats

2011-06-29T07:34:00.002-04:00

Someone just forwarded this to me via Twitter. Alec Baldwin (@AlecBaldwin) ranting about the state of politics, or, more to the point, politicians in America.

This isn't exactly ground-breaking, inspiring stuff. It's pretty trite and unoriginal.

But, man oh man, this "America" place and its politicians just sound so familiar...

Twenty six cents.

2011-06-28T06:00:00.002-04:00

Remember a few months ago when, to great public fanfare, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador announced in its budget that it would be giving consumers a break by (somehow) eliminating the province's portion of the HST from their electricity bills?

As Minister Tom Marshall said in the Budget speech:

"As Newfoundland and Labrador becomes an energy powerhouse, it is important that we continue to maximize the benefits Labradorians and Newfoundlanders receive from those developments. To that end, I am announcing today a rebate equivalent to the 8% provincial component of the HST for residential energy generated by home heating fuel, electricity and other energy sources for every household in the province. The rebate program will be effective October 1, 2011, in time for the winter heating season, and will assist individuals, families and seniors with the rising cost of energy, and it will be in addition to the current home heating rebate. Our energy tax rebate will put another $38 million back in the hands of taxpayers. All this, plus the electricity rate-reduction impact of a federal loan guarantee on Muskrat Falls, will reduce the cost of living for all consumers."

Let's leave aside the nagging little fact that the tax isn't being eliminated (as many reported) but that an ad hoc estimation of an equivalent amount will be sent to households just "in time for the ~~autumn voting~~ winter heating season" in October, 2011. Those are stories for another day.

Today, let's just talk about math. And perspective. And accountability.

The day of the budget announcement, as one prominent consumer advocate put it, "To say that we're happy about this budget move is an understatement..."

While we're at it, let's deal with the understatements as well.

The public utilities board, to apparently nobody's notice or interest just raised power rates for residential customers by 7.7%. This rate increase comes at the behest of NALCOR subsidiary Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (in addition to Newfoundland Labrador Power).

And nobody said a word. Not a peep. Not a whisper from the Liberals. Not a squeal from the NDP. And not a murmur from the "advocates". There was one brief media story over at VOCM, but someone took it down.

Now let's break this down:

In simple terms, if you used $300 worth of electricity last month, your bill would be $300 + HST of 13%, or 300+39= $339.

Theoretically, the elimination of the provincial portion of the HST would bring the HST down from 13% to 5%. So your "reduced" bill would show a total amount of $300 + HST of 5% or 300+15 = $315.

In theory, that's a saving of $24 dollars per month. But you'll never actually see a bill like that, because the HST cut (still unexplained) doesn't come into effect until October. The form of the rebate is unknown, but you'll get a cheque along with your voting card during the writ period. Timing is everything if you want to fleece consumers and the electorate in one fell swoop.

But back to the math.

Even assuming the provincial HST portion is off of your bill, the new power rates at 7.7% higher would be $300 x 1.077 = $323.10. That's before taxes. After taxes (just the GST component of the HST under our imaginary Tom Marshall scenario), the amount would be $323.10 x 1.05 = $339.26.

Guess what?

$339.26 is grater than $339. The government isn't giving you a discount this October at all. In fact, your monthly bill is actually going up. So much for "reduc(ing) the cost of living for all consumers". And on a year-over-year basis, they're sticking it to you slightly more, because the increased rates take effect this month, while the as-yet-imagined HST discount won't start until October.

But that's not all...

As you probably know, NL Hydro is a subsidiary of NALCOR, which is, itself a wholly-owned Crown corporation. In layman's terms, it's a government entity.

The second wonderful trick about this whole bait-and-switch is that while the net impact for consumers is somewhere between nil and a loss of a handful of change, the impact internal to government is quite large.

Because all of those millions of dollars (see above) that are going "back" into the hands of taxpayers represent millions less on the government's books in the form of tax revenue. But an equivalent or slightly higher amount is now flowing from rate payers into NALCOR's coffers, where it can be safely spent with far less public scrutiny. (Like this, for example).

Arizona Free Enterprise Club’s Freedom Club PAC et al v. Bennett

2011-06-27T11:32:00.002-04:00

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Act is pretty much dead. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled today that ensuring a competitive political system by subsidizing candidates is a violation of the First Amendment rights of those candidates who accept gobs of corporate cash.

There's a fantastic dissent to this ridiculously-reasoned decision, but alas, it's a dissent.

"If an ordinary citizen, without the hindrance of a law degree, thought this result an upending of First Amendment values, he would be correct." - Kagan, J.

More commentary, here.

Hello? Hello?

2011-06-22T23:03:00.010-04:00

I'm normally not one for telling tales out of school. But having sat it on a handful of meetings between Prime Ministers and Premiers, and having regularly set up phone calls for a Prime Minister with several of his provincial counterparts - sometimes out of simple courtesy, sometimes to consult on a national or regional concern, or else to deal with a sudden burning issue - I can tell you that Newfoundland is the only place in Canada where a telephone call between a Premier and the Prime Minister warrants s a five or six day news story.

People - this does not happen anywhere else. I swear. It's bizarre.

And it doesn't matter what party is in power provincially or federally. It could be Liberals and Tories, or Tories and Liberals. We could be in an election year, in the midst of a natural disaster, in the dog days of summer, or in the middle of Christmas holidays, it doesn't matter. And it usually goes a little something like this:

Day 1 - the suggestion that a phone call should happen, maybe from a reporter or some third party

Day 2 - the insinuation/accusation by political opponent(s) that a phone call isn't happening because of the shortcomings of one of the people not having the phone call

Day 3 - the editorialization of the necessity of the phone call, were one to occur, and what the lack of one might mean

Day 4 - the strategically offered speculation, usually by an underling, that a phone call may, indeed occur

Day 5 - the glory of declaring that, yes, a phone call is gonna happen

Day 6 - Phone call occurs, followed by the unilateral expression of the accomplishment of the phone call (by only one of the parties)

Day 7 - clean up, perhaps by way of a scrum or a call to Open Line Radio. Alternatively, a bevy of happy press releases or informative stories to move on to another topic (if necessary)

Tomorrow, apparently, Premier Dunderdale will be scrumming to complete this latest cycle of predictable telephonic silliness.

Until next time.

An Unsurprising Correlation

2011-06-22T12:03:00.004-04:00

Check this out:

Newfoundland & Labrador Premier Kathy Dunderdale, in a speech to the St. John's Board of Trade, Febraury 23, 2011 (emphasis added):

"Our province has never been in a stronger position.

GDP growth for 2010 is estimated at 5.4 per cent, the highest growth among provinces.

Retail sales grew by 3.6 per cent from January to November in 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.

Our population increased by 0.3 per cent in 2010, marking the second consecutive year of population gains after 16 years of decline."

Good news all around.

But wait. Lookie here, in today's Globe and Mail (emphasis added)

"Alberta saw a net inflow of 5,300 people from other provinces in the first quarter of 2011 -- its highest rate of interprovincial migration since the first quarter of 2006, according to Statistics Canada preliminary population data reported Wednesday.

The province saw steady inflows of workers from other parts of Canada between 1995 and 2009, but saw outflows in 2010 for the first time in 15 years."

What a purely coincidental, totally random, freakish occurrence that the slight population growth in Newfoundland in a short period in time would correspond exactly with a downturn in the Alberta economy. Who ever would have thought...?

Cape Breton North By-election (UPDATED)

2011-06-21T18:52:00.003-04:00

Looks like the Tories will hold onto Cecil Clarke's old seat in Cape Breton North.

Final Results, with 51 of 51 polls reporting:

Prescient President

2011-06-20T22:25:00.003-04:00

Ronald Reagan, nearly 30 years ago:

"I recently learned something quite interesting about video games. Many young people have developed incredible hand, eye, and brain coordination in playing these games. The air force believes these kids will be our outstanding pilots should they fly our jets."

- from a speech delivered August 8, 1983*

The New York Times, today:

"The Pentagon now has some 7,000 aerial drones, compared with fewer than 50 a decade ago. Within the next decade the Air Force anticipates a decrease in manned aircraft but expects its number of “multirole” aerial drones like the Reaper — the ones that spy as well as strike — to nearly quadruple, to 536. Already the Air Force is training more remote pilots, 350 this year alone, than fighter and bomber pilots combined."

*only source I could find with the date is here.

Mark your calendars

2011-06-20T16:34:00.006-04:00

We learned this weekend, through the NDP's convention in Vancouver, and the Liberal Party's extraordinary convention held online and over the telephone, that each of the parties will be taking two full years to make some key decisions.

The Liberals have moved their Leadership vote date to a window between March 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013. The NDP, meanwhile, have empowered their executive to deliberate for two years on whether or not to remove the word "socialist" from its preamble. Tough decisions require deliberations at the highest level only. As George Orwell put it in Animal Farm:

"He would be only too happy to let you make your decisions for yourselves. But sometimes you might make the wrong decisions, comrades, and then where should we be?"

Anyway - for those of you across the country who cannot wait two full years for the next Leader of the Liberal Party to be chosen, or for the closed-door revisions to the NDP preamble to be unveiled, here as a public service to readers, is a list of all the things you can do, and dates you can do them, between now and then, to get your political fix.

June 21, 2011 - Provincial by-election, Cape Breton North, Nova Scotia

July 15, 2011 - Nomination deadline for candidates, Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Leadership

August 1, 2011 – Nomination deadline for candidates, Alberta Liberal Party Leadership

August 19, 2011 – Membership cut-off, deadline to register for remote voting, Alberta Liberal Party Leadership

August 30, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Manitoba

September 6, 2011 - Membership cut-off, deadline to register for in-person voting, Alberta Liberal Party Leadership

September 1, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Prince Edward Island

September 6, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Manitoba

September 7, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Prince Edward Island

September 7, 2011 - Writ will be issued for provincial election in Ontario

September 10, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Newfoundland & Labrador

September 13, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Manitoba provincial election

September 15, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Ontario provincial election

September 16, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Prince Edward Island provincial election

September 17, 2011 – Voting (First ballot) Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Leadership

September 19, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Newfoundland & Labrador

September 20, 2011 – Alberta Liberal Party Leadership vote

October 1, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Newfoundland & Labrador provincial election

October 1, 2011 - Voting (Second ballot- if necessary) Alberta Progressive Conservative Party Leadership

October 3, 2011 – Election Day in Prince Edward Island

October 3, 2011 – Election Day in Northwest Territory

October 4, 2011 – Election Day in Manitoba

October 5, 2011 - Earliest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Saskatchewan

October 6, 2011 – Election Day in Ontario

October 10, 2011 - Latest possible date for the writ to be dropped for provincial election in Saskatchewan

October 11, 2011 – Election Day in Newfoundland & Labrador

October 22, 2011 – Nomination deadline, Saskatchewan provincial election

November 7, 2011 – Election Day in Saskatchewan

November 7, 2011 – Voting day for municipal elections in even-numbered rural municipalities in Saskatchewan

November 20, 2011 – Voting day for municipal elections in British Columbia

December 3, 2011 – Membership deadline for attending Liberal Party of Canada Biennial Convention

December 5, 2011 – Municipal Elections Nunavut (hamlets only)

December 10, 2011 – Latest possible date for delegate selection meetings, Liberal Party of Canada Biennial Convention

January 13-15, 2012 – Liberal Party of Canada Biennial Convention, Ottawa

May 14, 2012 – New Brunswick Municipal Elections

October 15, 2012 – NWT Municipal Elections (taxed communities)

October 15, 2012 – Nunavut Municipal Elections (Iqaluit only)

October 18, 2012 – Yukon Municipal Elections

October 20, 2012 – Nova Scotia Municipal Elections

December 10, 2012 – NWT Municipal Elections (hamlets only)

January 19, 2013 – Membership cut-off date, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming earliest possible scenario)

March 1, 2013 – Voting day, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming earliest possible scenario)

May 20, 2013 - Membership cut-off date, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming latest possible scenario)

June 30, 2013 – Voting day, Liberal Party of Canada Leadership vote (assuming latest possible scenario)

The Future of Sharing

2011-06-07T15:45:00.005-04:00

I loved this. So I'm sharing it.

From #pdf11, Jay Rosen on "The Future of Sharing":

Watch live streaming video from pdf2011 at livestream.com

A text version of his presentation is here.

Stephen Harper and the Canada Elections Act

2011-06-07T10:30:00.006-04:00

11 years ago today, Stephen Harper filed a Statement of Claim with the Court of Queen's Bench in Alberta, demanding that numerous provisions of the Canada Elections Act which related to spending restrictions on third party advertising be declared unconstitutional. It took nearly four years, and numerous decisions before Supreme Court of Canada ruled on the matter.

A lot has changed within our electoral system since then, particularly the ways and means by which political parties, candidates and other electoral actors raise and spend money during and between campaigns.

The latest change - ironically part of the Harper budget debate on this anniversary - will phase out public subsidies to political parties.

The Telegram's Russell Wangersky offers a decent diagnosis of some of the unfairness in this artificial attempt to "level" the playing field. But part of his suggested solution - that parties simply be limited in what they can spend and do between elections is hardly practical. Nor is it a reasonable curb on free speech. It would create a government monopoly on speech (i.e. advertising) between elections, hardly a hallmark in a democratic society. We have political parties, not only to form governments, but to challenge them. Limiting their activities between elections doesn't help anybody.

Another great piece appears today in this weekend's Bangor Daily News. It seems Maine's electoral system, similarly publicly financed, is now also under attack in its legislature. Former Republican and Democratic legislators make the case in this great column.

If you're interested in challenging what the Harper government is doing to the Canada Elections Act I want to hear from you. Post a comment below or send me an email (you can get it by clicking on my profile), a tweet @mark_watton or a message on Facebook.

#pdf11

2011-06-06T09:06:00.003-04:00

Just arrived at first plenary session at this year's Personal Democracy Forum. If you can't be here, follow via livestream .

Saturday reads

2011-06-04T09:00:00.004-04:00

Russell Wangersky in the Western Star, on Premier Dunderdale's announcing the findings of an independent study that hasn't even started yet.

"It’s one thing to be confident — it’s another, slightly different thing to be able to pronounce what the results of an independent study will be before the contract for that study has even been signed"

So much for independence. At this point, why bother?

Kelly McParland in the National Post on politicians, sports teams and taxpayer bailouts:

"Politicians should never be allowed near other peoples' money; this is especially so when they've been bedazzled by someone in a hockey sweater."

It's a rare occasion that I wake up and find myself agreeing wholeheartedly with a Saturday morning Post column.

In a similar vein, Brian Jones in yesterday's Telegram debunks some of the buzzwords and baffle-gab floating around St. John's about the "necessity" of hockey team subsidies.

Also now online, is the latest, post-election issue of Policy Options which is probably going to eat up the better part of my morning. You may want to start here, with Scott Reid's piece on rebuilding the Liberal Party of Canada. There are a couple of issues on how the party can attract new adherents, and where it should first seek them out that I would quibble with, but on the whole it contains the kind of substance that stands in contrast to some of the puerile commentary on the subject appearing on Facebook and Twitter these days...

Grounds

2011-06-04T08:04:00.000-04:00

Me on Twitter, May 28, 2011 (limited to 140 characters):

It appears that smarter people than me seem to agree:

Here's University of Ottawa Professor Errol Mendes, cited in a Toronto Star article three days later about party financing (emphasis added):

Yet Mendes says the trade-off in banning corporate and union donations was providing the federal subsidy. If that is now axed, he says corporations and unions could be expected to make a Charter challenge on the law that forbids their contributions.

"There’s a very good chance they could go to court and say we have the right to contribute," said Mendes, a professor of constitutional and international law.

"My view is that with the public subsidy, it was a reasonable limit. Without the public subsidy, I think it’s potentially open for the courts to say you can’t completely prohibit given the fact that the public subsidy is gone."

Unsurprisingly, here's what we got in today's Speech from the Throne:

Canadians rightly expect fairness and accountability in the full range of government institutions that serve them. Our Government will reintroduce legislation to restore fair representation in the House of Commons. It will take steps to phase out direct taxpayer subsidies to federal political parties over the next three years.

To be continued...

Weekend update(s)

2011-06-03T22:24:00.004-04:00

Some different stuff, starting this weekend.

(a) I just gave blog contributor status to my better half, Ruth. This could end very badly. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. A partial explanation appears in (b) below...

(b) We're off to New York to take in Personal Democracy Forum, an annual conference about government, politics and social media. It starts on Monday, and if everything goes to plan we're going to try to live blog it with a couple of friends, or at least provide some occasional insights and commentary. You can also follow the conference and participants via Twitter at #pdf11.

(c) I have been absolutely swamped at work, but there is some reprieve in sight... meaning a backlog of stuff about Jack Layton's ridiculous stand on Bill 101, Danny Williams' latest hockey adventure, the folly of faking Senate Reform, and a few other items might finally see the light of day here on the ol' blog.

(d) Also, later this week, on June 10th - CBA hosts the 2011 National Constitutional and Human Rights Conference: The Unwritten Constitution. Some of the topics - prorogation, serial minority governments, contempt of Parliament, etc. may have been a little more timely, say a few weeks ago, but nevertheless the constitutional law geek in me is happy to finally see a conference on the constitution and out system of government. Overdue, methinks. If you're going, drop me a line. If time permits, I'll try to tweet that one, too.

(e) Finally, you may have noticed a line in today's Speech From the Throne, in which the Harper Government said it "...will take steps to phase out direct taxpayer subsidies to federal political parties over the next three years." We're going to have some fun with that. More info on what we're doing, and how you can help, in the days ahead. Stay tuned.

(f) and for the Newfoundland & Labrador political junkies who visit regularly... if my math is right, CRA should have quarterly polling numbers out any day now.

On being duly diligent

2011-06-01T10:37:00.002-04:00

Danny Williams a couple of days ago: I demand due diligence!

Danny Williams now: I demand it in a "very, very short timeframe"

Missing the forest for the trees

2011-05-30T22:38:00.003-04:00

Since the media began filing their weekend wrap up coverage of the Alberta Liberal Party Convention, a number of pundits have weighed in on the party's decision to run a leadership race without membership. (Which isn't unprecedented, by the way)

Instead of having to join the party in order to cast a ballot for leader, any Alberta resident can vote.

To some members of the punditry and Liberal twitterati it's not only new and "open", but it's a potential panacea for everything that apparently ails the federal party, too.

They're dead wrong.

Without taking anything away from the Alberta Liberals, who are probably making a wise decision, it's important that the rest of us keep that decision in context.

The Alberta Liberal Party doesn't have a membership problem. Membership is a symptom of a much greater problem that the Party has been battling for a long, long time. If you haven't figured out what that is, maybe the language in some of today's papers will help. The Edmonton Journal talks openly of "the stigma attached to being... a liberal member", while the Calgary Herald describes the party's "toxic brand".

Before Liberals in the rest of the country jump to any conclusions about the utility of making such changes on a national level, it's key that they understand that the circumstances of the Alberta Liberal Party and the Liberal Party of Canada are dramatically different.

There's a reason why Liberals in Alberta muse openly about changing the party name, just as there's a reason why Calgarians will readily elect small-L liberals to the mayor's chair over and over again, but won't give a thought to sending big-L Liberals to Parliament.

I won't pretend to be an expert on why that is - although I have a few hunches.

But I do know that it's time Liberals in the rest of the country start focusing on the real problem here, rather than being distracted by its symptoms.

How stuff works

2011-05-29T23:08:00.005-04:00

Former Premier (and wanna-be subsidized hockey team owner) Danny Williams tells the CBC why he should get favourable treatment and a wad of cash from an unspecified government kitty for his latest vanity project:

"...I've given my heart and soul to the city and the province," said Williams. "I've given to the PC party, to my colleagues in the cabinet and the caucus, including Kathy Dunderdale but this will not affect my zeal or drive to do things for this province."

There you have it. He's given stuff to them. And now they should give stuff to him.

In Dannystan, this is apparently normal behaviour.

Speaking of disrespect

2011-05-23T15:09:00.006-04:00

A resident of Pasadena notes in the weekend edition of the Western Star that it is "disrespectful for provincial government project signs, with the late Diane Whalen’s name on it, to be left up months after the work has been completed."

Indeed it is.

Minister Whalen died last fall after a lengthy battle with cancer.

The concerned resident's story in the Star continues (emphasis added):

He wanted his concerns made known to the department, so made a call to suggest having the sign removed. The response he received from a staff member was even more ludicrous, in his opinion.
He says the person he spoke to said the Department was ordering overlays, but Parsons said the project is finished and the sign should be removed. He also said the person would not clearly answer his questions, even deflecting responsibility.

Not only is the Minister deceased, but the project is apparently finished. The Department, in its wisdom, will order "overlays" to remind us who is now filling the seat once filled by the late Minister Whalen, to ensure that local commuters can be reminded which politician now bestows such great things upon them.

The project may be finished, and the previous Minister deceased, but it remains an election year. The sign will be maintained and updated accordingly. It's probably due to be polished and shined (at our expense) in October.

The real matter of disrespect isn't the lingering of the sign lamented by Mr. Parsons. No, it's that the sign - an item of pure political vanity - was ever erected at all.

With due respect, it's not the deceased minister who is being disrespected.

It's the rest of us.

#elxn41

2011-05-02T17:58:00.003-04:00

Much written, but nothing posted.

So here's my (abbreviated) two cents.

The story of the night - like the story of the campaign - will be the voting behavior of large swaths of soft nationalist Bloc voters in Quebec. If they have made the decision that the Bloc is no longer of much use (a tantalizing prospect for all of us since the 1993 election) then this election will, indeed, change the colour of a large portion of Canada's electoral map.

With a Conservative government too far to the right to capitalize on the Bloc's demise, and a Liberal party still feeling lingering effects of the sponsorship scandal (plus the brand damage of the present provincial Liberal party) there was only one party that could possibly reap the benefit of such a collapse - the NDP.

The only questions about these shifting Quebec voters are (a) whether they are motivated to vote and (b) whether they get sticker shock in the voting booth, or whether that comes later.

Not only will the NDP capitalize on the Bloc's collapse, but they'll also reap the reward of a sensible strategy that's worked in three consecutive elections - i.e. not attacking the Conservatives with any effort, but rather focusing their organizational efforts and their advertising dollars on chipping away at Liberal, Bloc and Green voters. Jack Layton will barely register a dent in Stephen Harper's armour tonight, unless he catches fire in Saskatchewan and B.C.

In Newfoundland, Kathy Dunderdale will be watching these results with more nervousness than Harper himself. Her government and her caucus have placed a hefty bet on the election of Conservative MPs. Their rebuke will be doubly hers. The two ridings everyone predicted would be close before this even began (Avalon and St. John's South Mt. Pearl) will be the two closest races in the province.

And now... off to York Centre.

If you haven't already - Go Vote!

This also seemed worth sharing

2011-04-29T12:09:00.002-04:00

(alternatively titled: "Reason number 457 to loathe and despise Peggy Nash")

Pumped

2011-04-28T23:59:00.003-04:00

The Toronto Star reports on the latest tit-for-tat between Stephen Harper and Jack Layton about who's to blame for current and future gas price hikes:

"Layton responded by saying gas prices are already too high and said Harper is to blame for some of it because his government subsidized big oil companies and helped to bring the harmonized sales tax to Ontario, which increased the price of gasoline by eight per cent last summer...

"The Nova Scotia government began regulating gas prices in 2006 under pressure from the provincial NDP, when it was in opposition, and Layton said his party has discussed it before and remains open to the idea."

For what it's worth, as of yesterday, Nova Scotia had the third highest gas prices in the country. It also charges the highest rate of HST (15%) on gasoline of any jurisdiction in Canada, and charges the highest total amount of tax on gasoline per litre in Canada.

Seems a rather glaring omission from the story, no?

This seemed worth sharing

2011-04-28T20:17:00.001-04:00

Quotable

2011-04-15T16:22:00.002-04:00

William Kaplan, in today's Globe and Mail, on the media's reaction to Stephen Harper's limited campaign access, and restriction to only five questions per day:

"The only astonishing thing is that the media are taking it. They are playing along, accepting the unacceptable."

Read the full column, here.

Debate post script

2011-04-13T23:03:00.002-04:00

For the second night in a row, I didn't watch the Leaders' debate (there was an all-candidates debate in York Centre tonight which featured an equally jarring Tory candidate, but that's for another day).

Radio-Canada's coverage of the post-debate was really good, and featured, among other things, a reality check on Duceppe's finger wagging about the support of the other parties for a federal loan guarantee for the prospective development of Muskrat Falls. I can't find it on line (yet), but if it shows up later I'll re-post. It suggested that a maximum of 100MW of power could be sold into the U.S. market, after N.S. and it's cheapest price would be double that of hydro-electricty being exported from Quebec and virtually uncompetitive. Note: Rad-Can has an older "reality check" online from nearly two weeks ago here, which varies slightly.

And now, the French debate...

2011-04-13T12:28:00.003-04:00

Tonight's French language leaders debate will almost certainly attract a smaller audience than yesterday's - language comprehension being one reason and hockey playoffs, another - but it is likely to be a more substantive affair than the English one.

Despite its billing as a national event in one of the country's two official languages, the nature of the audience and the media covering this debate will almost certainly skew the balance of questions toward those of particular interest in Quebec, for better or for worse (a subject canvassed to near death by Andrew Coyne at Macleans in recent years).

Quebec's media tend to be a little less focused on the strategy/tactics obsession of their counterparts in the English Canadian media, and even the National Press Gallery folks will have gotten some of the "who won, where and why" drivel out of their systems in the past 24 hours.

It also goes without saying that Gilles Duceppe will have saved his catchiest lines and punchiest quips for the only audience he really wants to reach. All of these things will make for a different tone and tenor to this evening's round of verbal jostling.

Hopefully, this debate will open up a number of important policy issues for discussion which have otherwise been dormant during this election, and for various reasons have particular resonance in Quebec.

First among them is any discussion about the federal government's role on the energy file. Suggestions by the three major party leaders that loan guarantees are a possibility for the Muskrat Falls development in Labrador set off a strong negative reaction in Quebec, but none of the federal parties blinked after Premier Charest's criticism of the notion of such federal intervention. Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty's similarly concerns might be put to rest by commitments to similar scale funding or support for Ontario's nuclear projects. But since nobody is even clear what the "ask" is from Newfoundland, it's hard for any of the federal leaders to demonstrate what their "answer" will be. Nevertheless, having a national conversation about our national government's role in the national development of future energy sources just might be in the national interest - but that's just my opinion. And if a debate brings that about - so be it.

Second is the issue of the Harmonized Sales Tax. Both Quebec's provincial government and the Bloc have been adamant that the province be offered financial compensation similar to that received by B.C. and Ontario in their recent harmonization initiatives. Faced with growing discontent in the wake of Prime Minister Harper's utterances on Labrador hydro power, his Quebec MPs quickly reassured Quebec voters that the HST cash was on the way, even thought they hadn't budgeted for it yet.

But here's the catch - Quebec's sales tax regime is not and has never been harmonized with the GST. It's application as a value-added tax is very similar, but it has never merged its collection and administration with Ottawa's nor realized the economies of scale and scope which ensued in the HST provinces. Which begs the question why on earth we'd be compensating the province for refusing to harmonize their tax? Better still, forays into the HST debate would result in an inevitable pants-around-ankles moment for Jack Layton, who supports the HST in Nova Scotia, dislikes it in Ontario, and has promised to help scrap it in BC and let the province keep its transition costs with no penalty. His position(s) is(are) untenable, anywhere, and tonight's debate might provide just the opportunity to expose it(them) as such.

What else can we look forward to? Well, we haven't had much in the way of "identity politics" since Jason Kenney's ethnic solicitation letters popped up, so we're probably due for a round on something along those lines. Language issues are always likely fodder, and are another awkward issue for at least one federal party leader, who'd rather the rest of the country not know what his party's been up to in Quebec in recent months.

Other likely questions - probably the first honest criticism of Harper's law and order agenda, maybe an attempt to re-ignite the arts funding debate from 2008, and, of course, something that results in an over-zealous commitment by somebody to reduce the federal spending power.

Unlikely questions - anything to do with the Quebec Nordiques... but one never knows.

(ps - a bunch of hyperlinks to follow...)

A grain of salt

2011-04-12T10:32:00.004-04:00

Noteworthy in this Globe and Mail article describing the results of the latest Nanos Research daily tracking poll, is that in every single region, except the Prairies, every single lead or deficit between the Tories and Liberals is about half the size of the corresponding margin of error.

For example, an Atlantic "lead" of 2.3% with an expressed margin of error of 10.2% is, to put it mildly, a pretty useless piece of data...

Links for junkies

2011-04-07T11:17:00.006-04:00

In absence of generating any of my own content, here are a few links that I'm reading regularly as the federal election campaign unfolds. I thought I'd pass them along...

CBC's The National has a couple of excellent features. The "At Issue" panel is a must for political junkies, with more frequent appearances during the campaign, and podcasts of each show segment.

CBC has an added campaign feature, "The Insiders" featuring Jamie Watt and David Herle, which deals more with the mechanics of the election campaign from the perspective of those who've run them. In addition to podcasts, the segment's blog is regularly updated. (A permanent link now appears in my own sidebar)

Even if you don't speak or read French, the interactive riding-by-riding map on La Presse's website might be the most user-friendly I've seen online to date. At present it shows poll-by-poll 2008 results in all 308 federal ridings. You may want to check back for updated content throughout the election.

Speaking of interactive maps, the Toronto Star has a good breakdown of the Metro Toronto ridings - with candidate info, demographics, and traditional voting patterns. (speaking of which, if anyone has a similar such link for Atlantic ridings, I'd be more than happy to post it.)

Of course, if you need your daily fix of poll results, the Nanos daily trend line is here. As always, it's a good idea to read about the methodology involved in accumulating these rolling three-day samples.

The ever-popular ThreeHundredEight.com site takes daily polling results, aggregates them and attempts to use that national and regional data to project the likely outcome in all 308 federal ridings. It's popular, and it's fun, but I'd caution anyone to take the prognostication with a grain of salt, given the great difficulty in projecting so many ridings with such small national samples. Nevertheless, it's a fun tool for tracking regional swings in national polls, and helps to illustrate how small shifts in national support might play out in tight local races.

Of course, you can get a lot of quicker, shorter, snippier and sillier campaign coverage in quasi-real time via twitter. You can follow me @mark_watton

Stephen Harper, on responsibility

2011-04-05T22:57:00.003-04:00

My communications staff limit questions, not me...
The local campaigns set my events, not me...
It's our local candidates who hire discredited and fired employees, not me...
The RCMP threw them out, not me...
The staff barred her from entering, not me...
The campaign tracked her Facebook page, not me...
The Privy Council Office cleared Bruce Carson, not me...

Who's in charge of this place? Of this Government? this Party, or this election campaign?

Apparently, not Stephen Harper.

The Canada Pension Plan

2011-04-04T23:07:00.003-04:00

Everyone under the age of 60 should read this article.

"Most of today’s retirees did not contribute enough when they were working to pay for the cost of the benefits that they are currently receiving. That deficit is being made up for by greater contributions from younger workers."

- Frances Woolley in The Globe and Mail

If we actually get a policy debate about pensions during this election, younger voters should really, really, really tune in this time around.

On the teevee (II)

2011-04-04T21:32:00.004-04:00

Here's the link to my first foray into Mississauga cable TV. Our panel on the federal election had no-shows from both the Greens and Tories, but host Ben Mercer and a handful of callers made it all run smoothly. You can watch it here.

On the teevee...

2011-04-04T15:29:00.005-04:00

Given the ususal content found here, I realize that they're probably aren't a heck of a lot of regular visitors to this blog who watch Rogers Cable in Mississauga.

But there are a few... and if you're one of them - I'm a guest on tonight's Ben Mercer Live show. It airs at 7:00pm EDT and will focus (at least I hope) on the current federal election campaign.

Details about the show are here. I'll try to post clips or links later.

Electoral financing reform

2011-04-04T14:04:00.003-04:00

From the CBC's website, my pal (and pretty smart guy) David Herle on Harper's proposal to scrap the current public subsidization of political parties.

"The government of the day should no more be able to set political financing rules that benefit its party than it should be able to arbitrarily write new riding boundaries. That's called gerrymandering, and it is part of our political past but not our present and should not be part of our future."

The full column is here.

Campaign vandalism - a.k.a. "Douchebaggery"

2011-04-02T21:03:00.007-04:00

I am reluctant to use words like "douchebag" in daily conversation. There are, and have been, a number of politicians for whom I have little regard, but for whom I reserve at least a small amount of respect. In the riding of Pierre Pollievre, however, the rules of discourse and decency might as well be thrown out the window. While there is no evidence that Pollievre or his people are behind this little Palin-esque episode, it is unsurprising that in an electoral district where decorum and intelligence lags the national average by a great margin, an event such as this one would be first reported. I don't know who this candidate is, and I'm not sure I've ever met the guy. But I know how much lawn signs cost to be printed, and the kind of volunteer effort required to get them out in the early stages of an election campaign. So I'm sending him a few dollars to cover some of the $2,000 worth of damage done by a bunch of ~~brainless tories~~ senseless vandals to his signs in Nepean Carleton. I hope you will, too. Click here to help the guy out.

Hypocrisy

2011-03-28T21:07:00.003-04:00

If local media rumblings are true, Kathy Dunderdale's PC MHAs will be lining up en masse to support their federal counterparts in Stephen Harper's Conservative Party.

It's enough to make one want to fly off to an (American) hospital for a sanity check.

Meanwhile, in other news, Jack Layton is now telling people to vote strategically to get rid of Stephen Harper.

Hypocrisy knows no bounds.

And more, much more, to come..

Danny's consolation

2011-03-28T07:00:00.002-04:00

As word travels that Danny Williams is being shunned by his own party and hand-chosen successor (for reasons I won't even pretend to be able to explain), the province's ~~biggest sook~~ former Premier can take some comfort in knowing he's still wanted, by someone, somewhere.

"I've been asked to do some national commentaries for several of the national media. That may be my role, but I haven't even really decided yet if I will have a role." (Source: CBC)

Good for you Danny Williams, you can have a few more minutes in the limelight if you feel like it. You're some b'y. Anyway, the only reason I posted this is because it reminded me of a similar quote that the former Premier uttered the last time he emerged in public to ~~stick his nose in~~ remind us of his retirement from provincial politics. It was quite similar. As the Western Star reported:

As for trying to become the prime minister, Williams says he is finished with politics. “I’ve had a lot of representation,” he said. “I’ve had people approach me from several political parties. But, in this stage of my life, no. I’ve done my thing here.

Several. That's right. According to Hisself, several political parties have approached him to run. It's pretty clear Stephen Harper's crew haven't. And the Liberals certainly don't want him with 6 seats of their own already in the province. It's doubtful he'd be much of an asset to the Bloc Quebecois, either. So that leaves Jack Layton's NDP - an option which is entirely plausible given Williams penchant for spending and Layton's willingness to cozy up to just about anyone. But in order for the Premier's statement to be true, i.e. that several parties have approached him, you'd have to start working you're way through a list that includes the Rhinos, the Pirate Party, and the Marijuana Party, among others. Heck, perhaps the yogic fliers want him, too. He is still quite a popular fellow. Maybe it's not so implausible after all.

And now it's Jack Layton's turn...

2011-03-27T22:12:00.005-04:00

Earlier today, the Globe and Mail reported that Jack Layton, too, has recollections of a meeting in which Stephen Harper pitched the idea of replacing then-Prime Minister Paul Martin in the event of a lost confidence vote, rather than proceeding to an election campaign:

“What Mr. Harper was intending to do, it’s absolutely crystal clear to me, was to attempt to become prime minister even though he had not received the most seats in the House. And that letter was designed to illustrate that such an option is legitimate in Canadian constitutional traditions and there was no question about it,” Mr. Layton told reporters Sunday morning in his first new conference of the election campaign. “I was in meetings where this was discussed.”

Later, Layton proceeded back to his campaign stump speech, suggesting that a vote for him was the best way to defeat a Stephen Harper government.

So... if defeating a Stephen Harper government is such an important thing in Jack Layton's mind, then what the heck was he doing at a meeting plotting to make him Prime Minister in the first place...?

Meanwhile, elsewhere...

2011-03-14T22:55:00.003-04:00

Newfoundland and Labrador's chattering classes, who have spent the weekend considering the qualifications and processes which might or might not be relevant in appointing members and vice chairs to a certain regulatory body which oversees the province's offshore oil industry might want to make a comparison to the board next door.

A short time ago, in a gallery not far away

2011-03-10T19:23:00.005-05:00

It's Friday, and it's been a busy week for House of Commons Speaker Peter Milliken. But somewhere, between contempt rulings, he found the time to entertain, or at very least recognize, a few guests.

On Wednesday, for example, Speaker Milliken formally recognized the presence in the gallery of another Speaker:

The Speaker: Order. I would like to draw to the attention of hon. members the presence in the gallery of the Honourable Roger Fitzgerald, Speaker of the House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Some hon. members: Hear, hear!

For those keeping track, Roger Fitzgerald was in Ottawa on Wednesday, today is Friday, and after this weekend, it will (as per usual) be Monday. To be precise, this coming Monday will be March 14th, the second Monday in March.

Why is this important? Well, according to the House of Assembly website:

"...the House shall ordinarily meet...in the Winter-Spring from the second Monday in March to the Friday before the Victoria Day weekend with a break from the end of the sitting day on Maundy Thursday to the third Monday after Easter..."

So I assume we shall oridnarily see the House in session on Monday. Right?

The selective disregard of megalomania (II)

2011-03-07T10:15:00.003-05:00

Further to previous, the Telegram today sheepishly acknowledges that just maybe there's something not-quite-right with Ottawa officially calling itself the "Harper Government", and by extension, just maybe it was wrong to ignore the same practice locally for the past 8 years:

Jeers: to branding efforts. Perhaps taking a leaf from the playbook of the Williams government™, the Harper Conservatives have apparently decided to rebrand themselves as “the Harper Government.” In fact, federal civil servants have been told that they are to replace the words “Government of Canada” in official releases with the words “the Harper Government.” (Early on, you might remember, the Harperites preferred “Canada’s New Government.”) Remains to be seen if the label will make its way onto currency or anything like that, but several former federal civil servants, like former Privy Council clerk Mel Cappe, bristle at the term: “It is the Government of Canada. … It’s my government, it’s your government.” And he’s got a point...
- Today's Telegram editorial.

Funny how it takes a retired federal public servant in Ottawa to point out the bloody obvious to the Telegram's editorial staff.

Funnier, too, to consider whether such editorial rumblings would have been permitted or printed if Danny Williams were still around.

One can only wonder.

The selective disregard of megalomania

2011-03-06T19:32:00.005-05:00

This week saw the federal Conservatives pilloried and embarassed by the Federal Court of Appeal decision on their In and Out scandal, reducing their public defence to pending ~~administrative~~ charges to rubble. By mid-week, revelations that Jason Kenney's office resources and departmental agenda are being used to leverage money for advertising aimed at "ethnic" voters provided more fodder for media and Opposition MPs.

The most damning item, however, might be what became apparent on Friday, as national media reported that a Prime Ministerial edict had been sent across government departments instructing bureaucrats that the government was no longer Canada's, but Harper's, instead.

As CBC reported:

"Public servants from four different departments have confirmed to The Canadian Press that they received a directive late last year that the words "Government of Canada" in federal communications be replaced with "Harper Government."

A scan through the weekend papers shows that this story, at least a much as the other mishaps of the week has legs. Canadians just might get upset about this one.

A Google search turns up articles and columns heaping scorn from Vancouver to Halifax. And dozens of locations in between. Yessir, it's a news story or fodder for commentary from coast to coast, in every single province but one...

As the media pounced on the story, so did the Opposition. The Liberals launched an ad campaign in Quebec within hours of the story breaking. The ads ran this weekend. In the meantime, a nationwide fundraising appeal picked up on the theme of Harper as a threat to Canada's democratic institutions. Liberal MPs from Quebec, Ontario, BC, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick (to name a few) have been quoted in national and regional weekend media.

Meanwhile, on the internet, blogs, petitions and social media have rallied to the cause.

But while this issue burns in the rest of the country, Newfoundland's media will likely remain silent. None of Newfoundland's Liberal MPs will be on the attack, and, perhaps worst of all, the great punchlines the story could produce will sadly be out of reach for the columnists and comedians from this fair isle who normally lampoon such obvious egregious political behaviour with great fervour.

Newfoundland's Parliamentarians, our media, our comics and intelligentsia know damned well they can't with a straight face criticize such things emanating from the "Harper Government" in Ottawa, having tolerated, accepted and glowingly endorsed it from the "Williams Government" in St. John's for most of the past decade.

It's a shame.

Duelling narratives

2011-03-05T18:13:00.004-05:00

This is interesting. Compare and contrast this story:

...with this one:

On the involvement of former politicians

2011-03-03T09:58:00.009-05:00

Here's a Western Star story from a few months ago covering twice-retired former Tory Premier Tom Rideout and his opinions on the future of the fishery:

http://www.thewesternstar.com/Business/Natural-resources/2010-10-19/article-1859220/Rideout-admits-mistakes,-discusses-industry-future/1

And here's an article that appeared in their sister daily, the Telegram a few weeks earlier, on former Tory Premier Brian Peckford's continued involvement in politics:

http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2010-09-08/article-1732957/Peckford-advising-B.C.-Conservatives/1

And of course, a more recent Western Star article explaining how another former Tory Premier, (diverted from sunny Florida and pressing the flesh in a political campaign) enjoys not being in politics:

http://www.thewesternstar.com/News/Local/2011-02-15/article-2240403/Williams-enjoying-life-without-politics/1

None of these articles, nor any of the editorials from the same time periods, ever suggested anything like this:

"We realize it’s difficult for some politicians to walk away from all the excitement of running the show and being in the public eye, but these three and those like them should realize they had their shot at making a difference in this province. They should let those in charge now do what they think best ... without all the harping from has-beens in the cheap seats." (Western Star editorial, March 3, 2011)

But when a former Liberal politician weighs in on anything?

Well, that's a whole different story.

Oldie but goodie

2011-03-02T17:01:00.003-05:00

From one of the all-time high points of the Williams regime, this excerpt from Ruelokke v. Newfoundland and Labrador, 258 Nfld. & P.E.I.R. 308 (NLSC Trial Div.)

[56] The federal government took the position that it wanted the Panel to choose “the most capable candidate”. However, the Respondent chose to support one person and urged the Panel to select its candidate who was a long-term local politician. The Respondent’s campaign to promote its candidate was “doomed to failure” because he had neither the professional background nor the industry experience to be qualified to act as the Chair and CEO of the Board.

Oh, that silly respondent...

From the intertubes

2011-02-25T16:12:00.003-05:00

Here's Clyde Jackman, five short weeks ago:

Jackman said the MOU report is highly technical and it requires some editing before it can be submitted to cabinet, and then sent to the federal government.

"I would say it's more around the editing, just the final touches to it. In terms of substantial changes to it, I don't see any of that happening," Jackman said.

Here's MHA Tracey Perry, just last week:

"The Minister of Fisheries has received the MOU document and will be presenting it to Cabinet and Caucus as well as the Federal Government."

The charges

2011-02-25T09:42:00.002-05:00

Reposting because (a) I am an electoral law junkie and (b) I profoundly dislike Tories.

The charges against the "In-and-Out" schemers are laid out below. Source: http://www.elections.ca/abo/com/stat/charges_e.pdf

1. The Conservative Fund Canada,
Douglas M. Finley,
Irving Gerstein,
Michael Donison and
Susan J. Kehoe,

Between November 1st, 2005 and January 23rd, 2006, in the City of Ottawa, in the Province of Ontario and elsewhere in Canada, did wilfully incur election expenses in relation to the 39th federal general election that exceeded the maximum of $18, 278, 278.64 for the Conservative Party of Canada, contrary to Section 423 (1) of the Canada Elections Act and did thereby commit an offence punishable on summary conviction contrary to Sections 497 (3) (g) and 500 (5) (a) of the said Act.

2. The Conservative Party of Canada,

Between November 1st, 2005 and January 23rd, 2006, in the City of Ottawa, in the Province of Ontario and elsewhere in Canada, being a registered party whose chief agent, the Conservative Fund Canada, did wilfully incur election expenses in relation to the 39th federal general election that exceeded the maximum of $18, 278, 278.64 for the Conservative Party of Canada, contrary to Sections 423 (1) and 497 (3) (g) of the Canada Elections Act is guilty of an offence punishable on summary conviction contrary to Section 507 of the said Act.

3. The Conservative Fund Canada and
Irving Gerstein,

Between January 23rd, 2006 and December 18th, 2006, in the City of Ottawa, in the Province of Ontario, did provide the Chief Electoral Officer with a return on the general election expenses of the Conservative Party of Canada, in relation to the 39th federal general election, that they knew or ought reasonably to have known contained a materially false or misleading statement, namely that all election expenses in respect of the 39th federal general election had been properly recorded, contrary to Section 431 (a) of the Canada Elections Act and did thereby commit an offence punishable on summary conviction contrary to Sections 497 (3) (m) (ii) and 500 (5) (a) of the said Act.

4. The Conservative Party of Canada,

Between January 23rd, 2006 and December 18th, 2006, in the City of Ottawa, in the Province of Ontario, being a registered party whose chief agent, the Conservative Fund Canada, did provide the Chief Electoral Officer with a return on its general election expenses, in relation to the 39th federal general election, that the Conservative Fund Canada knew or ought reasonably to have known contained a materially false or misleading statement, namely that all election expenses in respect of the 39th federal general election had been properly recorded, contrary to Sections 431 (a) and 497 (3) (m) (ii) of the Canada Elections Act is guilty of an offence punishable on summary conviction contrary to Section 507 of the said Act.

Cut and paste

2011-02-24T09:11:00.004-05:00

If only we could photoshop Rick Mercer's rants. I mean, this one is good as it is, but if you could just replace the words "Stephen Harper" with "Kathy Dunderdale" and "fighter jets" with "Muskrat Falls" it would be just as accurate, and just as good. Nah, it'd be even better...

For what it's worth

2011-02-16T21:05:00.002-05:00

You would never, ever, ever in the past 7 years have seen an editorial like this one in the Western Star.

Small steps.

Election Day

2011-02-15T13:50:00.003-05:00

Just a few hours to go. You can follow the campaign via my website www.markwatton.ca, or on Facebook. I'm also (occasionally) on Twitter @mark_watton

For those of you wondering how to make a small (but extremely meaningful) contribution, click here.

ACAP candidates' forum opening remarks (video to follow)

2011-02-10T12:37:00.001-05:00

-- Check against Delivery --

I want to thank ACAP for deciding very early on to organize this forum. It’s regrettable that we have not had other such opportunities in this extremely short campaign, but you are to be applauded for your enthusiasm, sincerity and non-partisanship.

In this by-election, this debate - and by that I mean the event itself as opposed to its substance – has provided the only flashpoint in an otherwise muted campaign. That’s unfortunate. But it certainly isn’t surprising.

We live in a province in which your government works tirelessly to not only suppress dissent, but to discourage public discussion altogether.

It is a province in which people who question government policy are labelled “traitors” by their own elected officials. It is a province in which the emails, letters and opinions expressed by concerned citizens are hoarded, only to be dismissed and ridiculed from the highest offices in the land. It is a province in which Facebook pages are monitored by Assistant Deputy Ministers, and where the mob rule of open line radio is unleashed upon anyone steps out of line.

This is not the place that I grew up in or to which I and many others of my generation have longed to return. And that’s the primary reason I am running in this by-election.

This government doesn’t like people asking questions. This government is afraid of opposition. This government can’t stand the very notion of accountability. And this government doesn’t think any of you deserve to have your opinions expressed without its approval or permission.

It comes as no surprise that the Conservative Candidate for Humber West isn’t here. He isn’t allowed to be here. In 23 years in Corner Brook he likely hasn’t stated a public position on any important issue, so it is hard to imagine why he would to start by being here today.

But you’re here. And I’m here. And Rosie Myers is here. And for the next hour or so, that’s what matters.

On February 15th you can simply make this government bigger, or you can make it more accountable. This time, you have a choice.

I look forward to hearing your questions and your ideas.

Thank you.

Advance poll - tomorrow Feb. 10th

2011-02-09T18:04:00.001-05:00

Advance polls are open tomorrow from 8:00am to 8:00pm at Presentation Jr. High School.

Remember - If you vote tomorrow you'll have more time to lend us a hand on Tuesday!

Call if you need a lift or require any assistance: 634-1128

Eight days to go

2011-02-07T06:05:00.002-05:00

To my legions of fans...

...online contributions for my by-election campaign in Humber West are now possible through the website - www.markwatton.ca

Give early! give often!

Thanks for your continued support.

Cheers,
Mark

Best Superbowl Ad Ever!

2011-02-06T19:07:00.003-05:00

Oooops. Must've uploaded the wrong video

From the Chief Electoral Officer...

2011-02-05T14:41:00.000-05:00

NLIS 1
Office of the Chief Electoral Officer
February 5, 2011

Official Candidates for the Humber West By-Election

The nomination of candidates for the Humber West by-election closed today at 2:00 p.m. The nominated candidates are: Vaughn Granter (Progressive Conservative Party); Rosie Myers (New Democratic Party); and, Mark Watton (Liberal Party).

Advance voting will take place on Thursday, February 10 from 8:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. By-election day has been set for Tuesday, February 15 from 8:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m.

Special Ballot voting is also available to those electors who feel they may have difficulty voting in person on advance voting day or regular voting day. The deadline to apply for a Special Ballot is 6:00 p.m. on Thursday, February 10. Completed Special Ballots must be received at either the district Returning Office or at Elections Newfoundland and Labrador head office by 4:00 p.m. on Friday, February 11.

For more information, please call 1-877-729-7987 or visit www.elections.gov.nl.ca. Electors may also call the district Returning Office at 709-634-2191

- 30 -

Media contact:
Adrienne Luther
Communications and Training Officer
Elections Newfoundland and Labrador
Office of the Chief Electoral Officer
709-729-1474
adrienneluther@gov.nl.ca